Fantasy Busts 2008
Albert Pujols | 1B | St. Louis Cardinals | NL
.327AVG, 99R, 32HR, 103RBI, 2SB. Good numbers no doubt, but someone I want to make my first round pick? Not exactly. There are other options at first base but for a first round pick give me Chase Utley, Miguel Cabrera or Jimmy Rollins (all being drafted after Pujols) and I’ll fill my first base needs a little later in the draft.
Brad Penny | SP | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL
Penny had a tremendous year in 2007 but there’s one problem. His WHIP and BAA remained unchanged for the most part. So contribute Penny’s nice ERA and win total in 2007 to mostly good fortune and avoid him in fantasy drafts unless he falls to you to the point where you can’t ignore him.
James Shields | SP | Tampa Bay Rays | AL
Shields, on some deep sleeper lists in 2007, burst onto the scene with a sensational start last year. While he’ll still post good K/IP numbers his 1.11WHIP from a year ago will be hard to replicate. Shields also struggled down the stretch last year and you can always count on the Tampa bullpen to blow 3-5 wins for him. He’s being drafted around the likes of Fausto Carmona and Rich Hill but give me either of those two over Shields on a suspect Tampa team and in a tough AL East.
Hideki Matsui | OF, DH | New York Yankees | AL
With Jason Giambi healthy and Johnny Damon firmly entrenched as the left fielder (and better than Matsui) look for Matsui to be the odd man out in the Yankees lineup. He’s going to have a hard time getting the 547 ABs he had a year ago and with that will come an all around drop in production. Avoid Matsui in drafts as it’s an unnecessary risk, especially at the deep OF position.
Joba Chamberlain | SP, RP | New York Yankees | AL
Clay Buchholz | SP, RP | Boston Red Sox | AL
Both Chamberlain and Buchholz will post fantastic ERA, WHIP and K/IP numbers this year. The problem is both are on strict IP limits and will most likely not see much over 140-150 innings on the hill. Their effectiveness for when they will be on the mound is great but for where they are being drafted you can find more suitable options that will give you more wins, strikeouts and comparable ERAs over the course of the season.
Todd Helton | 1B | Colorado Rockies | NL
Helton’s numbers have been consistently on the decline for a few years now and he is not getting any younger. His power numbers will continue to dip in 2008 and while he might maintain a nice AVG (above .310) he offers little else from a fantasy perspective. Stay away from overpaying in the draft for Helton based solely on name recognition and go with a cheaper first baseball with similar production and more upside such as Kevin Youkilis or Ryan Garko.
Kelvim Escobar | SP | Los Angeles Angels | AL
Escobar had a terrible September last year after a very solid first 5 months to his season. The biggest concern however is his arm trouble as he probably won’t be ready to pitch until around mid-May. He is being drafted way too high and is not nearly a sure thing to be taking on that kind of risk where you will likely have to take him in the draft.
Scott Kazmir | SP | Tampa Bay Rays | AL
From many of the same reasons as Shields there are better options than to pin you pitching success to a starter on Tampa Bay. Not to mention Kazmir had some arm discomfort recently. Coming off his first truly injury free season don’t look for Kazmir to pitch a complete year and don’t take the chance when you can go with Roy Hallayday, Carlos Zambrano or Felix Hernandez around the same pick and lose little production if any and sleep better at nights.
injury, no thanks.
Mike Lowell | 3B | Boston Red Sox | AL
Lowell had a career year in 2007 and while it’s no doubt that the Green Monster agrees with his natural pull swing, it is unrealistic to expect Lowell to repeat his numbers from a year ago. Be careful to not draft Lowell based on last years numbers but if he falls to you in a more acceptable range then by all means jump on him.
Jorge Posada | C | New York Yankees | AL
Similar to Lowell, Posada is coming off a career year and it’s just not practical for a 36 year old catcher to keep getting better as he gets older. Granted Posada is young is catcher years as he was signed as a second baseman but he also only has batted over .290 once in his career and that was last year with his .338 average. His 90R, 20HR and 90RBI clip from a year ago might be reasonable but expect a dramatic dip in average and OBP.
Carlos Pena | 1B | Tampa Bay Rays | AL
Pena is a 29 year old journey man who has had little success in the majors except for some decent power with Detroit in 2004. He was dismissed by both the Yankees and Red Sox systems in the past two years before landing with Tampa. I’m going to assume the Yankees and Red Sox know a little bit about baseball and saw something that made them both think he could not be a consistent big league player. To expect him to repeat his remarkable numbers from 2007 is just not realistic.
Richie Sexson | 1B | Seattle Mariners | AL
Sexson probably won’t hit .205 again but his numbers did decline seriously in 2007 and unless your plan is to wait on first base until one of your last picks in the draft Sexson should not be on your radar. Avoid him and go with some guys with some upside such as Daric Barton or Mike Jacobs.
